What are Trump's plans and will Ukraine join NATO? Here are the top 5 key events to watch for in 2025.
The year 2025 promises to be filled with significant events that will impact Western support for Ukraine. This includes inevitable changes and transformations due to the new U.S. leader, elections in Germany—a key European state for military aid to Ukraine—and a planned NATO summit, which could either be a breakthrough or another disappointment for Ukrainians.
"Telegraph" discusses the key events of the upcoming year that deserve attention.
1 — Inauguration of Donald Trump
On January 20, 2025, the elected president of the United States will assume full power, and it will finally become clear which of his promises were merely part of his campaign and which are serious intentions. In the context of the war in Ukraine, Trump has repeatedly stated that he plans to "put an end to it," emphasizing the need for an agreement between Kyiv and Moscow.
However, nothing is known about the potential points of this agreement or the methods the American president plans to use to persuade the parties. For now, various scenarios are circulating in the media at the instigation of the Republican's associates, while Trump himself is cautiously withholding any details.
At the same time, Russian dictator Vladimir Putin shows no willingness for constructive negotiations, continually insisting on terms that will never be acceptable to Ukraine.
The new Trump administration will determine whether 2025 will be the year of the promised "peace through strength."
2 — Munich Security Conference
One of the most significant global security events has been held annually since 1963. Politicians, military officials, businessmen, analysts, and experts gather for several days in Bavaria to discuss pressing issues of foreign policy, security, and defense.
The conference often serves as a venue not only for discussions but also for manifestos that define trends for years to come. For instance, in February 2007, Russian President Putin delivered a 30-minute speech that would later be referred to as the starting point of a new Cold War between Russia and the West.
The dictator declared the unacceptability of a "unipolar world model" and criticized the United States for its dominance, condemned NATO's expansion, and instances of "disregarding international law," while calling for a reduction in nuclear weapons, among other things. This marked the beginning of what is known as "Putin's doctrine" and his dreams of a "multipolar world."
Over the years, Putin himself would become the main violator of international law and the man brandishing "nuclear weapons" before the world. In 2008, he invaded Georgia, in 2014—annexed Crimea and launched hybrid aggression in Eastern Ukraine, and in 2022—unleashed a brutal full-scale war against the Ukrainian people.
Interestingly, in 2022, the Munich Security Conference took place just days before the Russian invasion. The media was flooded with predictions regarding the date of the attack and scenarios for the occupation of Ukraine. Russia had already amassed about 150,000 soldiers and a lot of equipment near the Ukrainian borders.
In light of this, President Vladimir Zelensky traveled to Germany to convince allies that the existing security architecture had failed, its rules no longer worked. That appeasement of the aggressor does not work. That helping Ukraine is not charity, but an investment in the security of Europe and the world as a whole. He urged the West to continue supporting Ukraine and provide clear prospects for joining the EU and NATO.
"Ukraine wants peace. Europe wants peace. The world says it does not want to fight, while Russia claims it does not want to attack. One of us is lying. This is not yet an axiom, but it is no longer a hypothesis," Zelensky stated at that time.
The speech was met with applause; however, providing lethal aid to Ukraine remained taboo for some allies. Germany, for instance, ceremoniously declared the transfer of not howitzers or tanks, but five thousand helmets. Since then, much has changed, and Ukraine has encouraged other states to overcome numerous artificial restrictions.
In 2025, the Munich Security Conference will take place from February 14 to 16. Likely, many discussions regarding the resolution of the war in Ukraine will take place there, and it is crucial that Kyiv's position is heard and considered. Nothing about Ukraine without Ukraine.
3 — Election Year
On January 26, 2025, pseudo-elections for the presidency will occur in Belarus. The Russia-backed dictator Alexander Lukashenko has already announced his plans to run for another term. He has been in power for 30 years and seems unwilling to change anything.
No opposition candidates are allowed to participate in the "elections"; there will not even be observers at the polling stations.
"Lukashenko needs to do this quickly, quietly, in winter when it's minus 30 degrees outside, and people are less likely to go out. Because he fears protests. First and foremost, these elections are for Lukashenko himself to regain some sense that he is still president, as even his entourage no longer believes that," noted Franak Viachorka, chief advisor to the leader of the democratic forces in Belarus, Sviatlana Tsikhanouskaya, in an interview with the "Telegraph."
With Lukashenko's "reelection," Belarus will continue to be entirely dependent on directives from Moscow.
On February 23, 2025, early elections for the Bundestag will take place in Germany. One can criticize the German authorities for alleged indecisiveness, but Berlin has been, is, and we hope will remain a key European ally of Kyiv.
The next Bundestag will elect Germany's federal chancellor for the next four years. It is unlikely that any party will have a majority in parliament, so political forces are already considering coalition-building.
According to poll results, the CDU/CSU party leads with 32% support from voters, with Friedrich Merz as its leader. This political force has previously advocated for increasing military support to Ukraine, and Merz does not rule out the possibility of providing Kyiv with long-range Taurus missiles, although only after consultations with other countries.
The second place, with 18.6% support, is taken by the far-right and pro-Russian AfD party—"Alternative for Germany." This political force advocates for resuming relations with the RF and opposes military aid to Ukraine. The AfD's candidate for chancellor is Alice Weidel, who among other things supports Germany's exit from the EU.
Finally, the third spot, with 16% support, belongs to the Social Democratic Party led by the well-known Olaf Scholz.
It should be understood that in terms of arms supply to the Ukrainian military, Germany ranks second only to the USA. Against the backdrop of discussions about potential reductions in aid from Washington, Berlin might take on a leading role in arming Kyiv and uniting a coalition of allies for this purpose, making the upcoming elections of great significance.
On March 23, 2025, the first round of presidential elections will again take place in Romania. The results of the previous election, in which the far-right and pro-Russian candidate Kelin Georgescu had the advantage, were annulled by the country's Constitutional Court. It was established that Georgescu's campaign was the result of organized manipulation from outside the country.
Romania, as a NATO member state, is not only an important partner for Ukraine but also a security guarantor on the eastern flank of the North Atlantic Alliance. The president determines the country's foreign policy, so their position will influence Bucharest's stance on Euro-Atlantic commitments and support for Kyiv.
In May 2025, presidential elections are scheduled in Poland. Forecasts suggest a fierce battle between two candidates. On one side of the political "ring" is the candidate from the "Civic Coalition," Warsaw Mayor Rafal Trzaskowski, and on the other side is the candidate from the opposition party "Law and Justice," head of the Polish Institute of National Remembrance Karol Nawrocki.
In the context of Ukrainian-Polish relations, the candidates have already made several loud statements. Trzaskowski is convinced that the war should end in a "manner acceptable to the Ukrainians" and that Poland cannot remain on the sidelines of negotiations regarding Ukraine's future. Historian Nawrocki recently caused a scandal by referring to Ukrainian Galicia as "Eastern Little Poland."
In 2025, parliamentary elections are planned in Moldova. Despite attempts by Russia to interfere through bribery and propaganda in the presidential elections in November 2024, the pro-European and pro-Ukrainian head of state Maia Sandu won.
Now Moscow will bet on pro-Russian forces during the voting for parliamentary members. The ideal scenario for the Kremlin is to replicate the so-called "Georgian scenario" with a pro-European president but a parliament favorable to the