Postponing Kellogg's visit makes perfect sense from Trump's perspective.

Trump's representative Keith Kellogg has postponed his visit to Kyiv at least until January 20. What does this mean?

1. I have repeatedly stated that Putin is not yet willing to sit at the negotiating table and has set an impossible condition: Ukraine must officially renounce its territories (similar to the scenario of Czechoslovakia in 1938 or post-war Finland).

2. As I understand it, Trump expects Ukraine to signal that it is ready to abandon NATO in exchange for enhanced security guarantees. This, it seems to me, is one of the fundamental negotiation principles right now (de facto, the beginning of dialogue with Putin). Ukraine has not provided such a signal.

3. It is important to note the position of the Biden administration, which has significantly raised the stakes in the war in recent days. In particular, we should pay attention to our strike on Ust-Luga (Russia's main oil and gas transshipment point in the Baltic). For almost a year, we did not strike this port, largely due to the Biden administration's caution, fearing that such strikes could increase oil prices. We need to observe how events will unfold, but our recent strike serves as, on one hand, a signal to the Russians about possible escalation. On the other hand, we still do not have an answer to the question: for Trump, is this a path to peace through escalation, or is it an undesirable factor, given that the world and the U.S. are currently not prepared for a rapid replacement of Russian oil? Although, the fear of potential closure of oil revenues may sometimes outweigh the closure itself.

4. We must keep in mind that the 10% tariff on European goods announced by Trump will lead to the bankruptcy of several European economies. The continuation of our war actually strengthens the EU's negotiating position with the U.S. This is a very irritating point and is not a fait accompli or a consensus for the EU, but we cannot ignore it. And neither can Trump's team.

5. In an interview with Friedman, Zelensky proposed his version of the negotiation process: first, a common position is developed between the U.S. and Ukraine, and only then negotiations with Putin take place. It's unlikely that Trump's team is ready to unconditionally support such a negotiation approach right now.

6. It is still unclear how Trump's team will engage in dialogue with Beijing. Currently, we only hear about a "forceful" option. But I will reiterate what I have said before: without China, solving the equation of peace (freezing) is extremely difficult.

7. It is worth noting the internal processes in Ukraine, which are certainly being monitored by Trump's team.

Overall, the postponement of Kellogg's visit is more than logical from Trump's perspective. There are no quick solutions under these conditions. And if there are none, then there is no reason to go to Kyiv. On the other hand, Trump's team currently has no alternative to Kellogg's plan. Therefore, all decisions are postponed, at least until February. This is understood in Moscow as well. As a result, everything we've heard in recent days about needing to make a "simple decision" and "amputate unnecessary territories" will serve as the foundational narrative among useful idiots and Russian dummies within Ukraine.

However, Trump's team understands that in February, only the most casual critic of Trump will not ask: "Where is the solution to the Ukraine issue in one day?" And if there isn't some topic that can replace Ukraine, it will force Trump's team to play fast chess. I maintain the opinion that there are two things that could compel Putin to sit at the negotiating table—oil revenues @ and the fear of losing support from China.