Trump won't be able to "hand over" Ukraine to Putin, a political analyst explains why.

The newly elected President of the United States Donald Trump will not be able to "surrender" Ukraine to the so-called "president" of Russia, Vladimir Putin. The inertia of processes will prevent him from doing so: the amount of effort and money invested in Ukraine is so substantial that even if Trump genuinely attempts this, such actions will not end well for him.

Political scientist Oleg Saakyan discussed this in an interview with "Telegraph". Saakyan explained that the American president is a strong figure, and with a majority in both houses of the U.S. Congress, he is even more powerful, but he still faces a number of limitations.

"First. No President of the United States – and I agree with what Ermak recently said – can afford to lose to Putin. They cannot abandon Ukraine, because neither society nor international partners will accept it. The destructive processes that would ensue would be immense. It is clear that any president, regardless of who it is, cannot pursue such a scenario,” he stated.

Saakyan also explained that there is a concept known as "inertia of processes." Significant efforts have been made by partners to provide Ukraine with a "safety cushion" through 2025 – both financially and in terms of military assistance. The saga of securing a $50 billion loan from the G7 and €50 billion from the European Union is a story in itself.

"Bilateral intergovernmental programs and allocated funds for purchasing weapons from Ukrainian producers, cooperation with the Ukrainian defense industry, the establishment of Western enterprises on Ukrainian soil, and government loans for these enterprises and for purchasing weapons from them… A multitude of different programs and steps were aimed at ensuring that Trump would not have a short lever of pressure on Ukraine, as leverage is effective when you have done something and can come back in a few days and say, 'Well?' Then – a week later: 'Well?' After a few weeks, you can say, 'It hurts already.' But if your levers are – six months plus nine to twelve depending on the area, then during that time the situation will change so much… This is not a chessboard where moves are made sequentially; it is a chessboard where speed plays one of the key roles,” he added.

Saakyan also mentioned that Ukraine currently has a well-formed financial, temporal, and resource "safety cushion," which will simply prevent Trump from exerting "absolute pressure" on Ukraine. Some levers still exist, and the cost may be high and bloody, but not catastrophic. If the goal of blackmail cannot be achieved, then there is no point in blackmailing.

Moreover, Trump's team is not homogeneous. Among his circle, there are those focused solely on countering China. There are others oriented towards opposing Russia. Some are even prepared to push the U.S. towards isolationism. They will all have to work together, as the Republican Party is not entirely made up of Trump supporters; there are fewer than half who are real fans of Trump. Before the elections, Trump supporters could dictate their will to the majority, as much depended on them – nominations in Congress, sponsors, and so on. Now that the elections are over, politicians have gained more independence.

"And here the Republican Party, as such, will also impose certain constraints on Trump. The people who have entered Parliament are not unknowns. They are individuals who have built their careers, who have sponsors, connections, and political weight, representing specific states and influence groups,” noted the political scientist.

Overall, Saakyan believes that there will not be a middle path of mediocre solutions as during Biden's time. Trump's actions will be decisive – for Ukraine, they will either be good or bad. In the latter case, Ukraine needs to actively engage with U.S. elites and society to shape a favorable agenda for itself. Then, whether he likes it or not, Trump will have to respond to the demands of his party members. Trump thinks in terms of immediate benefits; he has no friends, only partners or enemies, and even that is situational.

"This is the type of politician who acts in the moment, here, doing what is beneficial to him. He is ready to label everyone as friends, enemies, or anything else because he will narcissistically pave his own way. Everyone else is just a resource for him. So, whoever he calls a friend or not at the moment has no real significance. He said in the evening that Ukraine is bombed, it does not exist, and it's a disaster – the next day he talks about 'a wonderful country that I am ready to visit, and the weather there is great.' For some reason, that struck his fancy at the time… He is a weathervane, changing his position in different directions according to the barometer of public sentiment and his interests,” the expert concluded.

As previously reported by "Telegraph", officials from the current U.S. President Biden's administration plan to expedite the transfer of the last six billion dollars in aid to Ukraine. There are concerns that Trump, in favor of the so-called "president" of Russia, will primarily halt the allocation of funds to support Kyiv.

The Pentagon confirmed that Ukraine will receive military assistance for the entire remaining amount available from the administration of the current President Joseph Biden before Donald Trump takes office. The amount will total around six billion dollars across two initiatives.