The era of simple solutions is over. What steps should be taken regarding mobilization to avoid ending up in capitulation?

The issue of mobilization in Ukraine has been and remains a cornerstone in the context of needing to contain Russian advances at the front. As of late 2024, the situation appears quite perilous — the Russians are advancing along the entire front line, posing a threat of occupation of several major cities. The pace of mobilization among the Ukrainian population is lagging behind plans, and commanders of combat brigades openly admit that there is a critical shortage of personnel at the front.

Against this backdrop, the number of supporters for a swift cessation of hostilities is growing in the rear. Discussions about this have intensified following Donald Trump's victory in the American elections. In fact, the newly elected U.S. president does not hide the fact that he wants to quickly freeze the war between Ukraine and Russia and is already threatening Kyiv with a reduction in military support.

All of the above hardly adds motivation for volunteers to join the army. That is why in recent months, "Telegraph" has spoken with several dozen high-ranking and authoritative sources connected to the military. We asked them similar questions: "What should be done about mobilization? Is there anything that can be done at all?" It is worth noting that only a few were willing to share their opinions on record. None of those currently "in office" agreed to speak on the record. For more details about the situation and potential solutions, read our article.

How many people are missing?

At the end of October, Secretary of the National Security and Defense Council Oleksandr Litvinenko stated at a parliamentary meeting that 160,000 citizens need to be drafted into the army over the next three months. This number of recruits would allow for the staffing of units to reach 85% of the required levels. At that time, Litvinenko also clarified that more than 1 million people have already been mobilized since 2022.

Volodymyr Zelensky was dissatisfied that Litvinenko announced mobilization plans. However, the president acknowledged that even the adoption of the law on military registration (more commonly known as the "mobilization law") did not enable the mobilization of enough individuals into the Defense Forces. This is not surprising, as the final version of this law was frankly weak. However, it should be noted that prior to the voting on this bill in parliament, there was talk in political circles about the need to recruit nearly half a million citizens into the army. Clearly, this was not achieved.

Meanwhile, the General Staff continues to grapple with finding solutions to increase the number of military personnel at the front. Amid issues with rotations, an increase in the number of AWOL cases (desertion — Ed.) and the absence of service limits, the number of individuals willing to don the pixel camouflage is not growing. Sources within the General Staff, speaking off the record, admit that attracting citizens for mobilization is becoming increasingly difficult.

"It's time to stop the 'busification.' But what to replace it with?

On November 18, Ukraine's Defense Minister Rustem Umerov announced plans to end the capture of draft dodgers on the streets. It should be noted that in most cases, the citizens caught by the military registration centers are those who have not registered for military service even after three years of a large-scale war. Frequently during the "busification" process, staff from these centers blatantly violate the law. This results in a kind of mutual violation of existing norms. The longer the war and, consequently, mobilization drag on, the more citizens complain about the work of military registration centers. However, this has little effect in courts.

Member of the Defense Committee of the Verkhovna Rada, people's deputy from "Holos" Sergey Rakhmanin commented on the work of military registration centers:

"At some point, the western regions and Odessa region were the outsiders in terms of mobilization resource replenishment. Mobilization was particularly challenging there (partly due to corruption): on one hand, there were certain individuals who had the means to bribe their way out, while on the other hand, there was a need to fulfill the plan, resulting in some being caught on the streets. There were regions where this plan was fulfilled at 80%, 90%, or even 95%. Now, for instance, there are regions where the mobilization percentage has dropped from 80 to about 10%."

Paradoxically, the same Odessa region, which demonstrates some of the lowest mobilization rates in the country, has struggled for leadership in another ranking. The number of videos showing forced mobilization and conflicts with representatives of military registration centers in Odessa was disproportionately higher than in most regions. The enemy did not miss their opportunity — videos of "busification" in Odessa and the surrounding area were widely circulated on social media, creating a negative effect and inciting public hatred towards the military. Hundreds of such video-recorded incidents were utilized by Russian propaganda to undermine our mobilization efforts. In short, the puzzle has become quite complex.

According to sources within the General Staff, meetings on informational support for mobilization are held almost weekly, yet there is still no super solution. The military rightly believes that this is not only their responsibility but that the entire state apparatus should work in this direction.

Opportunities for 18-year-olds

According to reports, as of early December, over 4,000 people voluntarily sign contracts for military service each month. More than 2,000 individuals took advantage of recruitment opportunities in October and November. Additionally, permitting prisoners to serve added another 6,000 military personnel to the ranks of the Armed Forces (who, despite some skepticism, have performed well at the front).

However, the General Staff does not hide the fact that the number of voluntarily recruited citizens for front-line needs is insufficient. Those around Syrski insist that "improvements to mobilization legislation" are forthcoming. However, none of the interviewees provided a coherent picture of how this should happen.

Paradoxically, it seems that there is simply nothing to replace "busification." The large, unwieldy machinery of the state has failed to establish a clear mobilization model and register all citizens over 10 years of war.

Against this backdrop, the U.S. has begun to publicly pressure Ukraine regarding lowering the mobilization age. They propose drafting individuals into the army at 18 instead of the current 25. The U.S. is even prepared to train and equip all future recruits. However, President Zelensky declined such assistance, arguing that "we should not compensate for a lack of equipment and training with the youth of soldiers."

The General Staff also denies the mobilization of individuals at 18. Although they plan to encourage citizens of this age to enlist on a contract basis more actively.

"We want to launch motivational annual contracts specifically for combat brigades for individuals aged 18 to 25. Such volunteers will receive an initial payment of half a million hryvnias. Additionally, they will receive various benefits – accessible loans, free education, longer vacation periods, and so on," a source from "Telegraph" explained.

After a year of service, such volunteers will be drafted into the army no earlier than they reach 25, unless, of course, they wish to extend their service. According to "Telegraph," this issue and legislative changes are currently being handled by Deputy Defense Minister Ivan Havryliuk. However, the Ministry of Defense declined to disclose details of this initiative in response to a request from "Telegraph."

How much this initiative will replenish the ranks of the Armed Forces, and most importantly, where additional funds will come from amid a catastrophic budget deficit, the General Staff has not commented on yet.

The parliamentary budget committee confirmed to the publication that the Ministry of Defense plans to present its proposals soon.

"It is known that new contract conditions are planned to be proposed soon. However, the financial closure of this issue will not go through the Verkhovna Rada, but through a Cabinet resolution. Currently, this matter has not been discussed in the committee," commented budget committee member and people's deputy from "Servant of the People" Anna Purtova.

It should be noted that due to the war, students from high school have been leaving Ukraine in mass numbers for the third year now—both boys and girls. Recently, Education Minister Oksen Lisovyi reported this in parliament. The unofficial figure mentioned is 300,000 graduates who have left the country. This accounts for about half of all students in senior classes. Consequently, the number of Ukrainians in the 18–25 age category will decrease annually.

And what about others?

As for pleasant bonuses – that's about all for now. To improve the training of new recruits, the basic military training course has been extended — now it lasts not 30, but 45 days. The number of hours dedicated to fire training has been increased, and instruction on drone defense and the use of collective weapons has been added. The General Staff believes